Wednesday, January 11, 2006

#2 Florida

Florida is ranked #2 in this week's AP and ESPN polls and is a 17 point favorite against the Pups tonight in Gainesville.

Chances for a State win? Slim, but possible. If any team can slow down a run-and-gun team like Florida, it's a team that rebounds well. And State will have to show up on the boards to keep Florida's offense under wraps. Especially early, because no one knows how the inexperienced Bulldog back court will respond to being down by 10 or more early in the game on the road.

To have a real chance at victory, State will need Reginald Delk to have a good-to-great night shooting the ball. Gordon will have to play within himself, Slater will have to give quality minutes with limited turnovers, like he did against Arkansas, and Rhodes will have to stay out of foul trouble and contribute around 15 points. In other words, everything will have to come together for the Bulldogs. It would be nice to get some quality minutes from Sharpe, because Florida will wear out Morgan and Stelmach in a hurry with their transition game.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Stansbury go to a smaller lineup in an attempt to neutralize some of the speed on Florida's roster. If that's the case, Houston could see significant time at the four tonight.

We're not expecting a win here, but the game could be a good measuring stick for how well the team will handle playing on the road in the SEC. With a team this young however it's important not to put too much emphasis on the result of any one game, which seems extremely difficult for many in the neurotic State fan base.

A streak which would be nice to break tonight: State has lost seven straight to ranked opponents. That's not good.

My best guess is that streak makes it to eight: Florida 74 - State 65.

(Don't you wish we still had Roberts?)

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